Contact: Mark Elvin E-mail:firstname.lastname@example.org
Data: Josephine Fox
Project design, analysis, and programs: Mark Elvin
Website design and realization: Tzai-Hung Wen
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DOWNLOAD: The following materials are freely downloaded and available
Demographic Data (.rtf)
Coding Conventions (.pdf)
Life Tables (.rtf)
Executable Programs (.pl.rtf)
Mark Elvin, Josephine Fox, Local Demographic Variations in the Lower Yangzi Valley (LYV) during Mid-Qing Times
Figure 1. Overview of the previous reconstruction of the basic demography of the lower Yangzi valley
in the later eighteenth century on which the present analyses are based.
Figure 2. Annual mortality in the late-eighteenth-century lower Yangzi valley compared with a real
population (Taiwan 1909-11) and a model one (Coale and Demeny revised ”„west”¦ fem).
Figure 3. Transforming standard logits to match data logits 1: lower Yangzi region.
Figure 4. Transforming standard logits to match data logits 2: some close and less close LYV fits.
Figure 5. Transforming standard logits to match data logits 3: non-LYV cases.
Figure 6. Probabilistic simulations as a guide to the reliability of small samples.
Figure 7. Surviving sons by length of marriage as a guide to rate of reproduction.
Figure 8. Converting sui-defined durations.
Mark Elvin, Josephine Fox, Marriages, Births, and Deaths in the Lower Yangzi Valley during the Later Eighteenth Century
Figure 1. The ranges covered by the earliest and latest years of death, or the award of a banner, to a faithful widow or faithful fiancee in Qing times in the Lower Yangzi valley.
Figure 2. The status of the families of the husbands of virtuous women, and of their own families, in the Lower Yangzi valley in mid-Qing times.
Figure 3. The conversion of Chinese sui years of age to exact western years of age and the determination of the density of sets of sui-assigned point events, assumed equally distributed, over the year between two exact western years of age.
Figure 4. Proportions of females in the sample virilocating and marrying during a year of age, and of those ever-married by exact age.
Figure 5. Provisional Lower Yangzi valley male and female standard life tables, with logits for males, and q(x) for males. Note that the precise age of minimum male mortality is given by the program life.table as being 0.0038 at age 12. (The mortality is the probability of dying in the course of the year starting at the exact age indicated.) There are two different scales for the y-axis.
Figure 6. Female mortality, and expectancy of life from 51-80 years, in the Lower Yangzi valley during the mid-Qing: a comparison of the female standard life table with the data.
Figure 7. Data and model values for the differential survival of parents-in-law using M/B.
Figure 8. Differences in age between married couples, showing the effects of transforming the original data template from Hengyang (mean + 3.347 years) to match the Lower Yangzi valley mean of 3.221 years. [now revised to 3.1719 years]
Figure 9. Female bereavements by age, with data values, expressed as proportions over the span of ages 15..28, versus model values expressed as component of female l(x). Note that the data value for the year following western age 28 is not fully covered by the sui data, which formally stop at the equivalent of 28.5 years, and is therefore approximated here as double this last value.
Figure 10. The age-specific probability that, given at least one surviving son, a widow has exactly 2 surviving sons. The data values have been adjusted by converting a proportion of the ambiguous cases (those showing 1 or more sons) to cases of exactly 2 surviving sons. The age-specific proportion converted is determined by the selection of the linear age-gradient running from ages 12..30 that gives the best fit to the model. Here the size of the proportion increased rises from 0.0 to 0.28, so the percent altered by age 30 (not included) is 28. For comparison, an unadjusted data curve is also shown, together with the total numbers of all cases for each age, and of the corresponding numbers of 1+ (i.e. ambiguous) cases.
Figure 11. Age-specific birth rates for both sexes together, and for girls and boys separately, with the life-table proportions of women reproducing at each age.
Figure 12. The rate of remarriage by age of Lower Yangzi valley widows, with the proportions by age of the birth-cohort, and of the female age-group, represented by non-remarried widows.
Figure 13. Female expectancies of life up to 85 at different ages in Jiaxing, Shangrao, and Shexian.
Note: Readers of the above two articles will observe that in almost all cases the mean values of the basic measures determined by the counting programs on this site now differ by a very small amount from those given in the articles. This is because, since the texts of the articles were finalized, we have in effect added a small number of cases ( 300) to the lower Yangzi valley database, two-thirds of them for Poyang. These differences make essentially no difference to the reconstruction presented in the articles. The extra data will be incorporated when we come to the further round of time-consuming interlocking calculations needed for the next report on the progress of the project.
Mark Elvin, "Female Virtue and the State in China", Past and Present 104, August 1984, Reprinted in M. Elvin, Another History. Essays on China from a European Perspective, Wild Peony, Sydney, 1996 (ISBN 0-646-20413-0), and reproduced here with their permission.
Note: A pdf of the original can also be obtained from here, but it needs to be paid for.
Last updated on 20th March, 2007.